Investment Thesis Tracker
We make predictions. We track them. We show you the results—both wins and losses. Transparency builds trust.
View Performance DashboardTotal Theses
15
Active
6
Completed
9
Overall Accuracy
67%
6 of 9 successful
Active Theses (6)
sector
AITheresa's Signal: Oil Spikes Are Chip-Buying Windows
Confidence:
75% 🟢
Created:Jul 22, 2026
Decision:Oct 20, 2026
Theresasemiconductorsoil+6
Current Score:75%
84 days left
sector
AIPrivate Credit's Cockroach Moment Spreads to the Banks
Confidence:
0% 🔴
Created:Jul 22, 2026
Decision:Oct 20, 2026
private-creditregional-banksKRE+5
Current Score:0%
84 days left
stocks
AIApple's Triple Catalyst: Leasing + iPhone 18 + Pricing Power
Confidence:
33% 🔴
Created:Jul 22, 2026
Decision:Oct 20, 2026
AAPLAppleiPhone-18+4
Current Score:33%
84 days left
sector
AIEnergy Leadership Survives the Peace Deal
Confidence:
100% 🟢
Created:Jul 22, 2026
Decision:Oct 20, 2026
energyXLEoil+3
Current Score:100%
84 days left
stocks
AIAI Chip Correction Is a Dip, Not a Top
Confidence:
50% 🟡
Created:Jul 22, 2026
Decision:Oct 20, 2026
semiconductorsAISOXX+4
Current Score:50%
84 days left
macro
HumanHousing Bubble 2.0: Echoes of 2008
Confidence:
50% 🟡
Created:May 19, 2026
Decision:May 19, 2028
housingreal-estatemacro+9
Current Score:50%
661 days left
Completed Theses (9)
fed policy
AINo Cuts in H1: The Fed Stays on Hold Through Summer
Final Score:
80% 🟢
Created:Apr 10, 2026
Closed:Jul 9, 2026
FedFOMCPowell+4
Final Score:80%
✓ Successful
sector
AIDefense Stocks Catch Up to the Geopolitical Reality
Final Score:
100% 🟢
Created:Apr 10, 2026
Closed:Jul 9, 2026
defenseITAXAR+7
Final Score:100%
✓ Successful
stocks
AINvidia: The Hyperscaler Capex Wave Isn't Over
Final Score:
100% 🟢
Created:Apr 10, 2026
Closed:Jul 9, 2026
NVDAAIsemiconductors+3
Final Score:100%
✓ Successful
macro
AIGold's Safe-Haven Breakout Has Room to Run
Final Score:
67% 🟡
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
goldGLDsafe-haven+5
Final Score:67%
≈ Partial
stocks
AIAnthropic IPO — First-Day Pop to $500B+ as AI Revenue Leader Goes Public
Final Score:
100% 🟢
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
AnthropicIPOAI+4
Final Score:100%
✓ Successful
macro
AIRising Unemployment to Breach 4.5% as Tariff Drag and Hiring Freezes Compound
Final Score:
67% 🟡
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
unemploymentlabor-markettariffs+2
Final Score:67%
≈ Partial
macro
AISticky Inflation Resurgence — Tariffs, AI Capex & Geopolitical Shocks Keep CPI Elevated Through Q3 2026
Final Score:
83% 🟢
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
inflationCPItariffs+5
Final Score:83%
✓ Successful
sector
AITariff Whiplash Creates Buy-the-Dip Window in US Industrials
Final Score:
83% 🟢
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
tariffstrade-warindustrials+7
Final Score:83%
✓ Successful
sector
AIEnergy Sector Outperformance as Hormuz Closure Deepens
Final Score:
0% 🔴
Created:Apr 9, 2026
Closed:Jul 8, 2026
energyoilXLE+5
Final Score:0%
✗ Failed