No Cuts in H1: The Fed Stays on Hold Through Summer
Confidence Score
4/10/2026
90 days
4/10/2026 - 7/9/2026
40 days
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
The Fed delivers zero rate cuts in H1 2026 (no cut at the May or June FOMC meetings) as sticky core inflation, tariff pass-through, and resilient labor markets force Powell to stay on hold longer than markets currently price in.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (5)
Federal Funds Rate
Rate • fred (FEDFUNDS)
Target
Above 4.5
Current Value
3.63
Last Updated
5/21/2026
Core CPI YoY
Rate • fred (CPILFESL)
Target
Above 3
Current Value
2.8
Last Updated
5/21/2026
Unemployment Rate
Rate • fred (UNRATE)
Target
Below 4.5
Current Value
4.3
Last Updated
5/21/2026
2-Year Treasury Yield
Rate • fred (DGS2)
Target
Above 4
Current Value
4.06
Last Updated
5/29/2026
10-Year Treasury Yield
Rate • fred (DGS10)
Target
Above 4.25
Current Value
4.5
Last Updated
5/29/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.