Theresa's Signal: Oil Spikes Are Chip-Buying Windows
Confidence Score
7/22/2026
6 months
7/22/2026 - 10/20/2026
84 days
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
Thesis by Theresa (The Invest Collective): Oil price surges knock semiconductor stocks down through inflation PERCEPTION, not fundamentals — and because the bond market never confirms the scare, chips recover within 1-2 weeks. Backtested Jan-Jul 2026 (122 trading days, Brent vs SOXX): daily return correlation -0.23 (p=0.011), weekly -0.49 (p=0.010), and across four Brent >10% five-day surges (Mar 3, Apr 24, May 15, Jul 13) the average SOXX path was -2% by day 3, breakeven by day 5, +10% by day 10 — with every max drawdown inside the first 4 days. Forward prediction: the July 13 event completes its recovery (SOXX holds above $554 and pushes higher), and the next oil surge produces the same dip-and-recover pattern within 10 trading days.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (4)
SOXX completes and holds post-Jul-13 recovery
Price • yahoo finance (SOXX)
Target
Above 554
Current Value
526.99
Last Updated
7/25/2026
10Y breakeven inflation stays anchored (scare never becomes repricing)
Rate • fred (T10YIE)
Target
Below 2.6
Current Value
2.24
Last Updated
7/25/2026
Next Brent >10% 5-day surge: SOXX recovers to pre-surge level within 10 trading days
Boolean • manual (oil-surge-chip-recovery)
Target
Equals 1
Current Value
Not yet measured
Last Updated
Never
Brent stays above $70 (signal remains testable)
Price • yahoo finance (BZ=F)
Target
Above 70
Current Value
90.28
Last Updated
7/27/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.