Private Credit's Cockroach Moment Spreads to the Banks

The recent one-off blowups (BDC markdowns like BlackRock TCP Capital's 14% slide, surprise bad-loan disclosures rocking bank stocks) are the first cockroaches of a broader credit deterioration cycle, not idiosyncratic accidents. Over the next 9 months, losses migrate from private credit vehicles into regional bank books — KRE falls from ~$76 to below $65, and high-yield spreads widen from a complacent 282bps past 400bps.