Housing Bubble 2.0: Echoes of 2008
Confidence Score
5/19/2026
24 months
5/19/2026 - 5/19/2028
720 days
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
Thesis by Blake Huber, based on his presentation "Housing Bubble 2.0 | Return Of Last War" (TIG, May 2026): https://theinvestcollective.com/research/housing-bubble-2-0-return-of-last-war
U.S. residential real estate is more overvalued today than at the 2006–2008 peak across 20+ major metros. With the median home now at ~7x median income (vs. ~1.2x in 1970 and a ~3x historical norm), mortgage rates elevated, and affordability at multi-decade lows, conditions are in place for a multi-year correction. Confirmation should appear in falling home prices, weakening homebuilder and REIT equities, regional-bank stress, and rising months-of-supply — the same chain that broke in '07–'08.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (8)
Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
Price • fred (CSUSHPISA)
Target
Below 300
Current Value
338.15
Last Updated
5/24/2026
Only one measurement so far — the line will grow as new values are logged.
Median Sales Price of Houses Sold
Price • fred (MSPUS)
Target
Below 400000
Current Value
403200
Last Updated
5/19/2026
Only one measurement so far — the line will grow as new values are logged.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Rate • fred (MORTGAGE30US)
Target
Above 7
Current Value
6.51
Last Updated
5/28/2026
Real Median Household Income
Price • fred (MEHOINUSA672N)
Target
Below 85000
Current Value
83730
Last Updated
5/19/2026
Only one measurement so far — the line will grow as new values are logged.
Monthly Supply of New Houses
Custom • fred (MSACSR)
Target
Above 10
Current Value
8.5
Last Updated
5/19/2026
Only one measurement so far — the line will grow as new values are logged.
XHB — Homebuilders ETF
Price • yahoo finance (XHB)
Target
Below 90
Current Value
104.26
Last Updated
5/29/2026
KRE — Regional Banks ETF
Price • yahoo finance (KRE)
Target
Below 45
Current Value
70.18
Last Updated
5/28/2026
VNQ — Vanguard Real Estate ETF
Price • yahoo finance (VNQ)
Target
Below 80
Current Value
96.55
Last Updated
5/29/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.