Tariff Whiplash Creates Buy-the-Dip Window in US Industrials
Confidence Score
4/9/2026
6 months
4/9/2026 - 7/8/2026
39 days
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
Peak tariff uncertainty is behind us following the Supreme Court's rejection of executive tariff authority and repeated policy U-turns. US industrials and export-heavy sectors, beaten down over 5 weekly losses, are poised for a relief rally as trade policy normalizes over the next 3-6 months.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (6)
S&P 500 Index
Price • yahoo finance (^SPX)
Target
Above 5800
Current Value
7520.36
Last Updated
5/29/2026
Industrial Select Sector SPDR
Price • yahoo finance (XLI)
Target
Above 130
Current Value
174.6
Last Updated
5/28/2026
Materials Select Sector SPDR
Price • yahoo finance (XLB)
Target
Above 90
Current Value
50.29
Last Updated
5/27/2026
iShares China Large-Cap ETF
Price • yahoo finance (FXI)
Target
Above 30
Current Value
35.45
Last Updated
5/27/2026
Manufacturing Employment
Custom • fred (MANEMP)
Target
Above 12800
Current Value
12705
Last Updated
5/21/2026
US Trade Balance
Custom • fred (BOPGSTB)
Target
Above -70000
Current Value
-57300
Last Updated
5/21/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.