Sticky Inflation Resurgence — Tariffs, AI Capex & Geopolitical Shocks Keep CPI Elevated Through Q3 2026

U.S. CPI inflation will remain persistently above the Fed's 2% target over the next 6 months (through October 2026), driven by three reinforcing tailwinds: ongoing tariff pass-through into consumer prices, AI-driven supply constraints in energy and semiconductors, and energy price volatility from the Iran conflict. The Fed will hold rates steady or cut only once, and TIPS will outperform nominal Treasuries.