Rising Unemployment to Breach 4.5% as Tariff Drag and Hiring Freezes Compound
Confidence Score
4/9/2026
90 days
4/9/2026 - 7/8/2026
39 days
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
U.S. unemployment will rise from the current 4.3% to at least 4.5% over the next 3 months, as tariff-driven supply chain disruptions, AI-related workforce reductions, and employer hiring hesitancy compound into measurable labor market deterioration.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (6)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Percentage • fred (UNRATE)
Target
Above 4.5
Current Value
4.3
Last Updated
5/29/2026
Initial Jobless Claims
Custom • fred (ICSA)
Target
Above 250000
Current Value
215000
Last Updated
5/29/2026
Labor Force Participation Rate
Percentage • fred (CIVPART)
Target
Below 62
Current Value
61.8
Last Updated
5/21/2026
U-6 Underemployment Rate
Percentage • fred (U6RATE)
Target
Above 8.2
Current Value
8.2
Last Updated
5/21/2026
S&P 500
Price • yahoo finance (^GSPC)
Target
Below 5200
Current Value
7520.36
Last Updated
5/29/2026
Fed Funds Rate
Rate • fred (FEDFUNDS)
Target
Below 4
Current Value
3.63
Last Updated
5/21/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.